Wednesday, March 28, 2007

An In-depth look at the Housing Conversation

In researching the current state of affairs in the economy, many people would be well aware of the questions surrounding the housing sector. In response to these questions I have researched several articles and watched some interviews that put many questions to rest and ask many more. One thing about the housing market is it is currently very uncertain and many housing index numbers are inaccurate to put together a full report. Furthermore, the best knowledge and understanding available is from experts within and surrounding the industry.

The first two articles appearing in the peer reviewed journal Brookings Papers on Economic Activity are "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?" and "Bubble, Bubble, Where's the Housing Bubble?" These two articles discuss the current state of the housing market in 2003 and 2006, respectively. The first article compares two surveys of homeowners in 1988 and 2003. The survey asks relevant questions to access the current ideas and feeling about the housing market in four primary areas (LA, NY, Milwaukee and San Francisco). The experts use the surveys to compare the boom peak year of 1988s housing market and the current status of the possibility of a housing bubble in 2003. The second article written by Margaret Hwang Smith, Gary Smith, Christopher Mayer, and Robert J. Shiller is more relevant to us since it is from 2006 and discusses the belief that many states are in the midst of a housing bubble and buyers should be aware. Four economists put forth their understanding and knowledge about the housing market and predict future outcomes.

The rest of the articles are from big news outlets discussing the possible housing bubble since 2005. The first article written by June Kim appears on BusinessWeek Online entitled "Housing Bubble – or Bunk?" published on June 22, 2005 in the midst of the housing boom. The article discusses the possibility of a sharp decline in housing prices with four key economists in the business world today. The article has a positive stance on the housing sector. Next, is a "The Housing Bubble Fact Sheet" written by Dean Baker, one of the previous key economists a month later in July 2005. He makes several important comments on the housing sector in a published report for the Center for Economic and Policy research. The article is neutral towards the housing sector with belief that the market will have a downturn that could be negative. Another negative article appears on Housing Crash Blog entitled "US Housing Crash Continues: It's a terrible Time to Buy." The article written on March 21, 2007 compares renting and owning a home in the current market and why it is not a good market to buy in, today. The next series of articles appears on These two articles "Housing Still on Down Slope" and "New-home Sales Fall to Seven-Year Low" discuss the surprising numbers of February housing indexes and give expert opinion on what the housing sector has in store for 2007. In addition, on on March 27, 2007 there is an article "Stocks Close Lower as Housing Concerns Sideline Buyers" that reports that despite the surprising decline in housing sector numbers stocks were lower, but not to devastating. The last two articles appear on MSN Money and one written by Jim Jubak in June of 2005 is entitled "Why There Is No Housing Bubble" and discusses the boom in 2005 and why the bubble is not going to burst soon (in 2005). The second article written in April 2006 by Bill Fleckenstein titled "The Housing Bubble Has Popped" discusses the report of falling sales and a decrease in demand in the early portion of 2006. These articles give a could mixture of psotive and negative outlook on the housing market to provide a well-rounded and fair assessment of the current and recently perceived notion of the housing industry along with the not too easy question – Will the housing Bubble lead to a recession?



1 comment:

Anonymous said...

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